Of Interest | Mortgage Rates in August 2010

From Suzanne Isherwood of Mortgage Express:

With the banks economists predicting one thing and the rates doing the opposite, it is quite confusing at the moment to try and understand what the rates might in the future, especially so for first time buyers. The ASB Economists had this to say:

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) began lifting the OCR by 25 basis points in both June and July, bringing the OCR to 3%. We expect the RBNZ to take a break from lifting the OCR in October and December. We expect rate hikes will resume in January, with the OCR steadily increased by 25 basis points at each meeting until the OCR reaches 4.5%.

Following the lifts in the OCR, floating rate mortgages have started to increase, and we expect the floating mortgage rate to continue to rise over the next year in line with future OCR rate increases. This may prompt some borrowers to move to fix the floating part of their debts. Our calculations suggest there is not much cost difference over a 2-year horizon between floating and fixing. This means the certainty of short-term fixed rates now comes at very little cost. In addition, the recent decline in the 2-year rate does marginally increase its attractiveness, although we do emphasise a large degree of uncertainty remains around the pace of OCR increases over the next year.
Beyond the 3-year mark, fixing remains expensive (despite recent declines in rates) but there is the benefit of more certainty if that is an important factor in the decision. Indeed, if this is something you are willing to pay a premium for, then now is an opportune time to fix as there is no guarantee 3 to 5 year rates will remain this low for long.
The trend over the next year will be for shorter-term mortgage rates to start lifting back to average, or slightly above-average rates. With long-term fixed rates relatively high, it is really only the floating or short-term fixed rates that offer value. Priority will be dictated by borrowers’ preference for maximising the chance of low debt servicing costs or smoothing the inevitable increase in mortgage rates.

Current rates:

Floating   6.10%   Westpac Choices
6 months   6.25% Wpac
1 year   6.45%   All banks
2 year   6.85%   All banks
3 year   7.15%   National Bank
4 year   7.45%   ASB & Wpac
5 year   7.75%   All banks